Shocked and Awed..

[stusegal]

When I was a kid, and even a young adult, I had certain expectations of what would happen in the world.  This year I’m going to be 60 . . .and I’m thinking about those expectations, and realize some have happened, in some cases way beyond my imagination. . . and some have not, and may not.

Are you surprised or disappointed by “the future”?

This is what I thought, back in the 50’s and 60’s:

I thought:

• we’d have flying cars, or something nearly as good.
• we’d have “Peace On Earth”.
• we’d colonize other planets, moons, etc.
• there would be all kinds of mass transit to help us get around.
• we’d find enough cures that our lives would be extended indefinitely.
• the sun would be shining every day.
• we’d eat perfectly balanced diets, like the astronauts.
• we’d have robots, and robotics, to help our everyday lives.
• I would be bald.
• our economy would only get stronger
• America would continue to be the greatest place on earth.
• the human condition would be vastly improved.
• cancer would be a thing of the past, like the plague and polio.

I never imagined that:

• the PC would be as integral to daily life as it is.
• communications would be so advanced.
• newspapers would be a thing of the past.
• ABC, CBS and NBC would be eclipsed.
• cars and motorcycles would be so good.
• we’d be able to watch anything anytime on our TV’s or PC’s.
• I’d be able to see the worlds’ greatest musicians.
• we would avoid falling into George Orwell’s 1984.

Where is my flying car?   OK, I always knew it was a stretch to expect flying cars.  But amphibious cars certainly seemed possible.  And cars that would drive themselves seemed to be just over the horizon . . . and it still seems that way.  But that quantum leap to the next great solution never happened.  Here we are, stuck in 1914 (but with better roads and vehicles).

“Peace On Earth”  -  I grew up in the 50’s/60’s.  Our neighbors, the McQuades, owned a very large house with a very large porch, on which they put a very large sign every holiday season that said, yup, “Peace On Earth”. 

During my childhood we were between shooting wars.  We had a “cold war”, and we all lived with the knowledge that some day the Russians would nuke us.  Just like that  -  a bright flash of light and incinerated . . . . or maybe a long slow death from radiation poisoning.  But I always believed the cold war would end, and there would be peace.

Then came Vietnam, North Ireland, the Six-Days War . . . and I realized my perception that we had been living just one cold war away from peace was a childish illusion.  Are we actually now further from peace than when Eisenhower was President, or is it just my perception?

We will colonize other planets, moons, etc.  -  Yes I believed this, as surely as I believe that my peanut butter diet is both nutritious and slimming.  The problem was, and I hate to say it, after JFK died so did the space program.  Sure, we have done more after his death, but the leader who made us believe we would conquer new frontiers was gone . . . . and replaced by . . . .Nixon, Agnew, Ford, Carter . . . . and other such exciting characters, who we could barely stomach, let alone convince us we should spend gazillions getting to other galaxies.  The very bad news here is – we continue to increase our impact on the earth, and have made no attempt to find an alternative.

Moving sidewalks.  Monorails.  Mass transit.  I really didn’t believe that all these things would be limited to Disneyworld.  Maybe someone can explain to me why, in a country being held hostage by OPEC, we all insist on driving everywhere in our own vehicles.  Why is there so little mass transit that people can’t even get comfortable enough with the idea to push their politicians?  I am fortunate to live in a place served by mass transit  -  but again, it’s a hundred year old system with new track and engines.  Where is MagLev?  Where are trains that actually run on schedule (excluding Japan)?  Does anyone care? 

We will live forever, or at least, a pretty long time.  It certainly seemed like medical science was curing disease at a rate that would all but wipe it out.  And if we wore out body parts and organs, there would be replacements.  Life expectancy has gone up dramatically in the last 50 years – but somehow I don’t think this is happening quickly enough for me to be around to see our Martian colony or our first visit from extra-terrestrials.

And it’s raining why?  When I was a kid there was a lot of press about “cloud seeding”, which was a way to modify precipitation by seeding the clouds with certain chemicals.  It seemed like a sure thing – we’d be able to control the weather and have beautiful sunny days all the time, and maybe have rain just in the middle of the night.  (And, BTW, cloud seeding is still in use in China, generally to increase rainfall for arid regions – but they also seeded the clouds in 2008 to prevent rain during the opening ceremony of the Olympics).  It actually seems to me that as I age, the weather is becoming worse; shouldn’t we be having “hundred year storms” every hundred years, instead of every two minutes?

We’d eat balanced diets and be perfectly healthy like the astronauts.  And why not?  We saw the astronauts on TV; it looked easy.  There were tubes of nutritious goo and Tang – they ate this stuff, and they all looked like Olympians.  I guess I didn’t anticipate The Cheesecake Factory or White Castle.

Robots.  Who couldn’t use a Klaatu or Robby?  I wasn’t sure if robots would be for the wealthy, or everyone, but I was sure they would exist.  The best I can see we’ve done with robotics which everyone uses are Automated Teller Machines – yes, they do a job that was, and still is, done by humans.  And they do it pretty well, 24 hours a day.  But somehow I imagined robots doing more.

I was certain I’d be bald.  After all, my Dad was wearing a toupee by 32, and given the receding hairline of my 20’s I had vowed to just shave my head when the male pattern became noticeable.  Truth be told, in my late 40’s I started taking something called propecia, which may be responsible for my hair today.  But I would have just never imagined that I’d get gray; hey, I didn’t think there’d be any hair up there.

Working Wives???  I grew up in a world where Moms were at home, and Dads earned enough for the family.  I slowly saw the necessity for two wage earners to support most families.  I’ve watched as the powerhouse companies of the planet (which were all based in the US) - US Steel, Motorola, General Motors, RCA, Prudential, Citibank, Zenith, Ford – have gone out of business, or been eclipsed by foreign competitors.  I’ve watched as our jobs moved out of the US.  There is a very long discussion here, and it’s not about the last 8, or 10, or even 20 years – it’s about an attitude of arrogance and disregard that has pervaded our country for the last 50 years.  It’s not the governments’ fault, or Wall Streets’ – it’s our fault; and it’s not getting better.

The best place on earth.  This is a tough one, because I believe the US is still the best place on earth, but I have seen the erosion of personal freedoms over the past 60 years, and the growth of a litigious society full of rules that limit all kinds of behavior which was personal choice when I was a kid.  We seem to be moving further away from the course our founding fathers charted 2 centuries ago.

The Human Condition.  What can I say?

Cancer.  50 years ago we were on the cusp of a cure, or so we thought.  When I was a kid it seemed that sometimes people died of cancer, and sometimes other things.  Now it seems that most people I know, or know of, die of cancer, and it seems more pervasive now than it did 50 years ago.  We have gotten much better at early detection; and it seems that when detected early there are much more effective treatments than there once were.

PCs.  Who would have thought the PC would become so critical to daily life?  To efficiency?  My calendar, phone book, journal, banking, shopping, music, communication with friends and business colleagues, encyclopedia, dictionary, auto and bike shop manuals, etc., etc., all live on, or gateway through, my PC.  And if I go out, there are alternatives to get to all this stuff.  First of all, I never imagined the PC as anything but a fast calculator and a word processor, and second, how did we ever get by before?

“Advanced communications” was Ham radio when I was a kid.  There was 5-digit dialing.  Nobody spoke to anyone in Singapore (unless you were the State Department).  Not even Dick Tracy with his wrist radio, or Batman with his batphone.  Now at a moments’ notice you can find three different ways to communicate with someone on the other side of the planet.  And you never have to be out of touch.  And it’s cheap.  Amazing.

There were 2 things everyone did.  One was read the newspaper, and the other was watch the (network) news.  And I mean everyone; if you wanted news this was how you got it.  As far as I’m concerned, the network news and newspapers are dead – and good riddance.  Like all other monopolies, the quality devolved to the lowest common denominator.  Need proof?  How about Katey Couric as CBS new anchor?

Cars and motorcycles.  When I was 13, Parnelli Jones broke 150mph qualifying for the Indy 500, and I dreamed what it would be like to circle the Raceway at that breakneck speed.  What I never dreamed is that someday I would own cars that would go that fast, and would also have air conditioning, power windows, and be so good they could be driven every day.  No more required semi-annual tune-ups; sparkplugs now last 100,000 miles.  The cars we drive today have incredible speed and power, excellent gas efficiency, and even the most common cars are engineered to be more durable than the finest most expensive vehicles produced 50 years ago.  The only regret?  We still have speed limits on the highway that prevent the occasional top end run, and we all can’t live near the Autobahn.  (And motorcycles are even more amazing, with acceleration and speed that are downright insane).

I heard of videotape and imagined that we’d someday be able to watch something “on tape”; that sounded pretty cool.  But I never imagined that with the combination of cable TV (or satellite), Netflix, streaming video, pay-per-view, and Tivo we’d be able to watch anything, anytime we want.  Think I’m kidding?  Get cable, Tivo and Netflix; now tell me there’s nothing on TV.  These content providers have allowed a fundamental change in viewing  -  from being glued to the armchair during primetime so you didn’t miss your favorite shows, to acquiring your favorite shows and watching them at your leisure.

I remember the Beatles coming to Atlantic City in ’64.  Somehow I was not in attendance, which was, for a long time, a regret.  But I got to see many more musicians through the years than I ever expected - McCartney, The Who, The Moody Blues, Rod Stewart, Elton John, The Animals, Dylan, Paul Simon, etc., etc.  Equally surprising, I can now hit a button on my remote, queue up a concert, and be surrounded by sound as fine as the best seat at Lincoln Center or the muddiest seat at Woodstock while a six-foot screen fills with a high-def image which is actually better than what I’d see in person.  I’ve been an audiophile since I heard my first stereo record in maybe 1963, but I really never imagined it could be this good.

And now my paranoia – yes, I really thought the governments would gain such control over information and communications that we would live in Orwell’s 1984.  And just so you know, I am still not convinced that we are not on that path.  And to the argument that the internet has given us free and open access to post the truth and expose the worlds’ ne’er-do-wells, I say  -  there are an awful lot of examples of us all falling for “the big lie”, even in today’s connected world.  I might even argue that we are positioned to be more easily led, and more easily led astray.

What have I missed?  What are your big disappointments, or big surprises?

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Comments

[lauriemann.livejournal.com]

I've always been more pessimistic (much as I try to be an optimist). The biggest disappointment for me has been the slowness of the development of space travel. I thought we'd be on Mars be now! It's now been nearly 40 years since we walked on another planet (OK, moon).

I hoped the world (at least America) would be better about racial and sexual equality. That's an area where we seem a little better (particularly if you compare pre-1970 to now). It's not perfect, the bigots and the clueless are still out there, but it's better. I also expected to see a black president and a woman president (haven't seen that yet, but I still have hope) in my lifetime.

Everything else has been as I expected - gradual improvement. The Handmaid's Tale may have come true in other parts of the world, but most of the rational world has avoided such a giant step backwards.

[stu-segal.livejournal.com]

Actually I'm probably no more optimistic than you; I may have just been more impressionable and gullible in my youth.

Yes, I also expected a woman president - and I was surprised that Israel, India and the UK got there first. I hate to say it Laurie, but while we've seen an improvement in sexual equality I believe it's been for the wrong reasons (let's not forget that the country voted down the ERA) - I believe it has been driven more by the economic necessity of women in the workforce than by any idealistic motivation of a public trying to do the right thing. Be that as it may, this is one of those areas where we must be thankful for progress, whatever the motivation.

[alanashinean.livejournal.com]

Space Colonization was a big one for me. I have a very clear memory of working out in my head how old I would be when we colonised the moon, or mars, or even further out. I seemed impossibly old (in my 30s!) but I remember thinking I would be the first to sign up for it.

I also remember thinking that cancer would be conquered in the near future.

The biggest surprise for me has to be the Internet. Sometimes I stop and just ponder how truly amazing it is that I can talk to people in all these different countries of the world. Maybe it seems a bit cliched, but it really does stun me sometimes if I sit and think about it. All the information that is available at a few clicks of a keyboard. I couldn't have imagined that was anywhere near our lifetime despite growing up on stuff like Star Trek.

Oh, and that reminds me. I thought we'd all be using video phones. I remember seeing this set up at a science museum, of video phones. I really thought that would be the next big thing. In retrospect, I can see why people didn't latch on to (although I suppose we do have webcam conferences now to pick up the ball)- I don't want to have to check my hair or makeup before I answer the phone.

[stu-segal.livejournal.com]

Hmmm - how did I forget videophones? You're absolutely right - I thought Ma Bell would have a screen on every phone in the country!

The internet, and cellular systems, are amazing. Seeing as my post was so long to begin with, I didn't mention David Jones. He was a teenager in my neighborhood who was, in the 60's, into Ham Radio. He had this radio shack just loaded with all kinds of gear, with needles and dials. . . and he could, if conditions were right, talk to people in Europe and South America. I was just amazing!

But not as amazing as us, all of us, being able to Skype, chat, or even call and talk to someone anywhere on the planet. And the related thing which I failed to mention, is as a result of that we now have "instant news". No waiting for weeks, days or even hours - as soon as it happens, we know. Amazing.

[gilraen2.livejournal.com]

i did a similar post in my LJ earlier this month when i finished re-reading Heinlein's The Door Into Summer. take a look.

[stu-segal.livejournal.com]

I would have never remembered (and I probably never even knew) that running shoes weren't made for women.

Having now thought more about this, and read folks comments, the thing that I think is most surprising, and seemed to be missed by everyone predicting the future - is how connected we all are. Through internet, email, cellphones, landlines, texting. No one, it seems, imagined that we would all be walking around tethered to one another via all kinds of networks - being always in touch, with instant access to news and information. And it's not that no one imagined it, it's that no one imagined the common person being this connected.

But I guess my real question is - granted we have made enormous tech advances, and have made social and rights improvements (except where we haven't), but has the human condition improved? And, are we leaving the planet a better place for future generations? Hmmm.